WRITINGS (2000-2016)

On the American Economy

On Commodities

  Commodities, Developing Countries & the Resource Curse

 Determinants of Commodity Prices

  Proposal to Peg the Export Price
On Developing Countries

On Emerging Markets

On Exchange Rate Regimes


Other Emerging Markets

  Euro & other Currency Unions

NGDP & Product Price Targeting
On Global Environmental Issues

Climate Change Agreements

Trade & the Environment
On Globalization


The US & Asia


Globalization and Chinese Growth: Ends of Trends?” (PDF), 2016.  Il Grande Sconvolgimento, Paolo Onofri, ed. (il Mulino: Bologna).  Written for a conference celebrating the 40th anniversary of Prometeia, Bologna, Nov. 2015.  HKS RWP 16-029

"A Quarter Century of Currency Expectations Data: The Carry Trade and the Risk Premium" (pdf),with Menzie Chinn, Aug. 2016.

“Bias in Official Fiscal Forecasts: Can Private Forecasts Help?” with Jesse Schreger; NBER WP 22309, June 2016; HKS RWP16-021, pdf, May 2016.

"Nominal GDP Targeting for Developing Countries," with Pranjul Bhandari. Forthcoming 2017, Research in Economics (Elsevier).  NBER WP 20898

International Coordination," 2016, in Policy Challenges in a Diverging Global Economy, R.Glick & M.Spiegel, eds. (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco).  Written for  2015 Asia Economic Policy Conference, Nov.19-20, 2015; SlidesHKS RWP No. 16-002;. NBER WP 21878.   Summarized in "International  Macroeconomic Policy Coordination," VoxEU, Dec. 2015.

"The Plaza Accord, 30 Years Later,”  published in Currency Policy Then and Now: 30th Anniversary of the Plaza Accord,  edited by C.F. Bergsten and R. Green (Peterson Institute for International Economics: Washington), 2016 NBER WP 21813.  Written for a Conference at the Baker Institute for Public Policy, Rice Univ., Oct.1, 2015.  Video of session 1

"Does It Matter If Statistical Agencies Frame the CPI Report on a 1-Month or 12-month Basis?"  with Ayako Saiki, pdf;  HKS RWP16-11 March 2016.   Feb.2015; 2014.  wording appendiXL.  HKS Faculty Lunch Seminar presentation, Nov. 19, 2014.

Program Report, International Finance and Macroeconomics, National Bureau of Economic Research, NBER Reporter 2015, Number 2. 


World Trade and PaymentsAn Introduction by Richard Caves, Ronald Jones and Jeffrey Frankel  

10th edition 2007 Addison Wesley Longman: Boston. 

International edition, 2006.      9th edition, 2002, including video interview


Translations of
World Trade and Payments:
Chinese, 2005, 2009;  Polish, 2004 Japanese, 2003;  French, 2003, Portuguese, 2001.



On the American Economy   


On Developing Countries  


“On Graduation from Fiscal Procyclicality,” with Carlos Végh & Guillermo Vuletin,  in Journal of Development Economics, 100, no.1, Jan. 2013; pp. 32-47.    HKS RWP 12-011.  NBER WP 17619.  Summarized in VoxEU, 2011.


The Natural Resource Curse: A Survey of Diagnoses and Some Prescriptions,” in Commodity Price Volatility and Inclusive Growth in Low-Income Countries, edited by R.Arezki, et al. (IMF), 2012.   CID WP 233 2012.  Videoclip Sept.2011.   IMF Podcasts on the Curse: June 30 & July 6, 2011.

"The Curse: Why Natural Resources Are Not Always a Good Thing,”  Milken Institute Review, vol.13, no.4, 4th quarter 2011: 28-39.

Escaping the Oil Curse,” Project Syndicate, Dec.9, 2011.   "Barrels, Bushels and Bonds,"  Project Syndicate, Oct.17, 2011.

"How Can Commodity Producers Make Fiscal and Monetary Policy Less Procyclical?Beyond the Curse: Policies to Harness the Power of Natural Resources, R.Arezki, T.Gylfason & A.Sy, eds. (IMF, 2011).   HKS RWP 11-015.  Keynote, High Level Seminar, Algiers, 2010.

The Natural Resource Curse: A Survey,” 2012, Chapter 2 in  Beyond the Resource Curse, B.Shaffer & T.Ziyadov, ed. (U.Penn.Press); proofs & notes Summary.  NBER WP 15836, 2010.    WP 195, 2010, CID Presented, ADA 2010 [quote].

"Are Bilateral Remittances Countercyclical?"   Open Economies Review vol.22, No.1, Feb.2011, p.1-16.  Harvard Migration & Integration Program, Slides, 2010.  NBER WP 15419, 2009.  CID WP No.185.   Presented, 2009, Immigration &Global Development, CGD, slides.

"Slow Passthrough Around the World: A New Import for Developing Countries?" with David Parsley and Shang-Jin Wei, published in Open Economies Review,  vol.23, no.2 , April 2012, 213-251.    NBER WP 11199.  KSG RWP05-016  


"What Small Countries Can Teach the World," Business Economics 47, no.2, April 2012 , pp.97-103 (NABE).  HKS RWP no. 12-013.   Summary, Impact, 2012, 4, no.4, p.4.  Slides, NBER Session, National Association for Business Economics Annual Meeting, Dallas, Sept.11, 2011.  CID WP 232, April 2012.

"Off the Beaten Path," Transitions, Foreign Policy, Feb.16, 2012.

"The Little Economy That Could,"Transitions, Foreign Policy, Feb.2, 2012.

"Mauritius: African Success Story," proofs; forthcoming in African Successes, vol.4 edited by S.Edwards, S.Johnson, & D.Weil, 2016 (Univ. Chicago Press).   CID WP 234, April 2012.   NBER WP 16569, Dec.2010; featured in NBER Digest, May 2011 NBER's African Successes Project.   Slides, Accra, Ghana, 2010.

A Solution to Fiscal Procyclicality:  The Structural Budget Institutions Pioneered by Chile,” in Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Performance, 2013, Series on Central Banking Analysis, and Economic Policies , vol.17.    NBER WP 16945, April 2011.  Central Bank of Chile  WP 604,  Jan.2011.  CID WP 216Jan.2011.  Slides, 14th Annual Conference of the Central Bank of Chile, 2010, Santiago.

"A Lesson from the South for Fiscal Policy in the US & Other Advanced Countries
," Comparative Economic Studies 53, no.3, Sept.2011, pp.407-430.   Slides, NYU, 2010.

Some Big Ideas from Small Countries,”  European Financial Review, April-May 2011, pp. 4-5.

"Big Ideas from Small Countries,"in Project Syndicate newspapers, Oct.2010
. Reprinted, Business & Management Journal 2, no.1, Jan.2011.

"Big Ideas from Small Countries" (with links to references), 8/15/10 blogpost;  Grandes idées en provenance des petits pays

"Finding Big Lessons in Small Places," slides, MPA/ID 10th Anniversary, May 2010.
Click to enlarge
 TV interview, BNN, 8/16/10. 
 "What the United States could learn from Chile,", July 25, 2011
"Looking to Chile for Fiscal Sanity" HKS, 2011.
The blame for the crisis lies with the ‘optimistic’,”Diario Financiero, Chile, Aug.12, 2011; 
How Intelligent Budget Rules Help Chile Prosper: Lessons For The US, Business Insider, Jul.25, 2011;
"Emerging Lessons," Business Standard, Nov.19, 2010 .



copyright: European Financial  Review

"South Africa: Macroeconomic Challenges after a Decade of Success" , with B.Smit & F.Sturzenegger,  Economics of  Transition 16, no. 4, pp. 639-77, Oct.2008.      Other Frankel papers/presentations on South Africa.

Jeffrey Frankel and Amartya Sen debate: "Is the Language of Rights Useful in the Fight Against Poverty?" HKS Forum.

Comments on Bosworth and Collins, “The Empirics of Growth: An Update,”   Brookings Panel on Economic Activity 2, 2003, pp. 189-99.

"Promoting Better National Institutions: The Role of the IMF,"  IMF Staff Papers, 50, 2003. RWP03-010.   [Video of the 4 speakers: Guillermo Ortiz, Jeffrey Sachs, Frankel, and Nancy Birdsall.]


On Emerging Markets     

Are Leading Indicators Useful for Assessing Country Vulnerability?  Evidence from the 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis,” with George Saravelos, in Journal of International Economics 87, no.2, July 2012, pp.216-31; Online Appendix.   NBER WP 16047.   HKS RWP 11-024. summary in HKS Impact, Autumn 2011.   Summary, VoxEU. [TV interview]

Coping with Asia’s Large Capital Inflows in a Multi-speed Global Economy,” slides, IMF / Bank of Indonesia conference, Bali, March 2011.    Without appendices
"Currency Wars" slides,
MAS Sponsored Public Lecture, Singapore, March 2011.  Without appendices.   Appendices.
Emerging Market Countries in the Global Financial Crisis,” slides, Insights in Development Thinking, with COMFAMA, May 2010. 
"The Global Financial Crisis," slides, Cutting Edge of Development Thinking , CID, Harvard, May 2010.

"Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets," CEMLA webinar, June 2, 2015; powerpt.
"Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets: A Survey,” published in Handbook of Monetary Economics, edited by Benjamin.Friedman & Michael Woodford (North Holland), 2011.   HKS RWP 11-003; press release. CID WP No. 215.   NBER WP No.16125. Presented at the ECB, 2009;  Slides.   

"The Forward Market in Emerging Currencies: Less Biased than in Major Currencies," with Jumana Poonawala. Proofs. Published in Journal of International Money and Finance, April 2010, 29, no.3, 585-98. Abstract. With appendices: HKS RWP09-023.   NBER WP 12496.  Errata:  In Table 1, the numbers are wrong in the column testing t: b=1.  They should be (β-1)/(s.e.β).  E.g., the t-statistic should be 3.88 for Australia, etc. 

"Carried Away: Everything You Wanted to Know About the Carry Trade,"  Milken Institute Review, 1st Quarter, 2008. Revised from: “Getting Carried Away:  How the Carry Trade and Its Potential Unwinding Can Explain Movements in International Financial Markets,” with footnotes & references, Nov.2007.

"Fiscal and Monetary Policy in a Commodity Based Economy," with B.Smit & F.Sturzenegger,  Economics of  Transition 16, no.4, 2008, 679-713 (Blackwell).   South Africa Growth InitiativeCenter for International Development.   

"Does Openness to Trade Make Countries Less Vulnerable to Sudden Stops? Using Gravity to Establish Causality," with Eduardo Cavallo, Journal of International Money and Finance 27, no.8, Dec.2008, 1430-52.  KSG RWP 04-038 NBER WP No.10957 

"New Perspectives on Financial Globalization," slides, IMF Economic Forum, April 27, 2007.   

"Will rising US interest rates precipitate the next wave of emerging market crises?" The International Economy, Winter 2005.

Contractionary Currency Crashes in Developing Countries,  IMF Staff Papers, 52, no.2, 2005, 149-192
The Mundell Fleming Lecture, Nov. 5, 2004IMF 5th Annual Research Conference.  slides.    KSG  RWP05-017.   NBER WP 11508, 2005.

“Managing Macroeconomic Crises: Policy Lessons,” with Shang-Jin Wei. In Managing Economic Volatility and Crises: A Practitioner’s Guide edited by Joshua Aizenman and Brian Pinto (Cambridge Univ.Press), 2005
Paperback, 2010.
 Video of presentation 2/27/04, World Bank.  NBER WP 10907.    Tables & Figures

"The Role of Industrial Country Policies in Emerging Market Crises," with Nouriel Roubini [Summary], NBER WP 8634 In Economic and Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies, edited by Martin Feldstein (Univ. of Chicago Press), 2003.

"The Balance Between Adjustment and Financing," in Key Issues in Reform of the International Monetary System, edited by P.Kenen and A.Swoboda (International Monetary Fund), 2002.

"Ten Lessons Learned from the Korean Crisis", NBER, Feb.2000.


On Currency Regimes            

Should Central Banks Care About Exchange Rates in Addition to Inflation? SNB-IMF Conference on the International Monetary System, Zurich, May 13, 2014.

"Currency Wars," presented at panel on "Printing Pressure: Global currency war," at American Enterprise Institute, March 18, 2013.  Video.
"Currency Wars,"
MAS Sponsored Public Lecture, Singapore, March 2011. Slides:  Without appendices.   Appendices.         "Currency Wars," Macquarie Securities, Dec.2010.       "What's Hot and What's Not in Global Money" State Street Institute, Oct. 2010
"What’s 'In' and What’s 'Out' in Global Money,"  in Finance and Development, 46, no.3, September 2009, 13-17.    Abridged, from On Global Currencies,” speech for Exchange Rates: The Global Perspective,  ECB, June 2009.   RWP09-026.  

“Choosing an Exchange Rate Regime,” Chapter 28, The Handbook of Exchange Rates, edited by Jessica James, Ian Marsh and Lucio Sarno (John Wiley), 2012.

"Exchange Rate Regimes: Current Issues in Research & Policy," Lecture slides & Appendices, IMF Institute, April 2011.   Lecture slides & Appendices, 2010.  2009.    2007.

“Estimation of De Facto Flexibility Parameter and Basket Weights in Evolving Exchange Rate Regimes” with Daniel Xie, proofs in American Economic Review, 100, no. 2, May 2010.   Presented at De Nederlandsche Bank, Amsterdam, June 2010.   Atlanta, Presentation, Jan. 2010.    HKS RWP 10-005.   NBER WP No. 15620.   Peterson Institute for International Economics WP 10-1

"Estimation of De Facto Exchange Rate Regimes:  Synthesis of The Techniques for Inferring Flexibility and Basket Weights,"  Condensed for publication, May 2008;  IMF Staff Papers 2008, vol.55.   Replication files.    slides.   Complete version with all appendix tables: NBER WP No. 14016, May 2008, March 2008.    Or, with selection of appendix tables: HKS RWP08-026, May 2008.   Replication files     Slides incl. update of China and other weekly-frequency estimates, ASSA meetings, San Francisco, 2009.   Slides, U.Mass.Amherst, 2009.

         For China                               

"Misinterpreting Chinese Intervention in Financial Markets," China-US Focus, September 10, 2015

"Congress, China, and Currency Manipulation," China-US Focus, vol. 6, April-May 2015, 36-38.   "The Non-Problem of Chinese Currency Manipulation," Project Syndicate, Feb.20, 2015.   "Chinese currency manipulation not a problem,"  East Asia Forum, March 9.  Condensed from "If China stops manipulating, its currency will depreciate," Feb.23, 2015.

"China is Still #2," Project Syndicate, May 5.   Expanded as "China is Not Yet #1," VoxEU, May 19, 2014.    China is Not Yet Number One,”  in Frontiers of Economics in China, March 2015, 10, no.1, 1-6ESAGEV 11/23/2015 (in Turkish).

"Internationalization of the RMB and Historical Precedents," published in Journal of Economic Integration, 2012, vol.27, no.3, pp. 329-365.

Historical precedents for the internationalization of the RMB;  written for a workshop in Beijing of the CFR & the China Development Research Foundation, Nov.2011.  
Summary: "Internationalization of the Renminbi: What Does History Tell us About the Precedents?" Oct.5. Versions at RIETI & Vox, Oct.10, 2011. 

"The RMB as an International Currency," slides, Club de CEPII, Paris, Jan.2011.  

"China-US Currency Issues," China's Leaders in Development Program, Ash Center, June 2012 slides & appendices. June 2010. "China-US Currency Issues," CFL, January17, 2011.  

"The Renminbi Since 2005,"  in The US-Sino Currency Dispute: New Insights from Economics, Politics and Law, edited by Simon Evenett (Centre for Economic Policy Research: London) 2010, 51-60.

"The Renminbi-Dollar Issue," slides, Spring Exercise, HKS, April 23, 2010.

Blogpost: The RMB Has Now Moved Back to the Dollar --  Tables.       ["China Resumes Dollar Pegging On The Sly,", March 2009.]

New Estimation of China’s Exchange Rate Regime,”  in Pacific Economic Review 14, no.3, August 2009 (Wiley InterScience, Blackwell Publ.), pp. 346-360.     Final draft, June 2009; proofs.    NBER WP no. 14700.   Data.
"New Estimation of the RMB Regime" (incl. appendix tables) in China’s Emerging Financial Markets: Challenges and Opportunities, J.Tatom, G.Yago, and J. Barth, eds. (Springer).    RWP08-077, Harvard University.    

Comment on ‘China’s Current Account and Exchange Rate,’ by Yin-Wong Cheung, Menzie Chinn and Eiji Fuji,” in China’s Growing Role in World Trade,   NBER, edited by Rob Feenstra and Shang-Jin Wei (University of Chicago Press, 2010).

"The RMB: China's Exchange Rate Policy," Harvard Project for Asian and International Relations," April 4, 2008.  slides.

“Comments on Cline and Williamson’s ‘Estimates of the Equilibrium Exchange Rate of the Renminbi?’,”   in Debating China's Exchange Rate Policy, edited by M. Goldstein and N. Lardy  Peterson Institute for International Economics, Washington DC), 2008, 155-165.   From 2007 conference.

"Assessing China's Exchange Rate Regime," with Shang-Jin Wei,  Economic Policy 51, July 2007
, pp. 575-614.  Panel meeting, Feb. 2007.  Video interview.   Vox summary.   Earlier working paper versions contain more extensive tables: CEPR DP No. 6264, April 2007, and NBER WP 13100, May 2007.    Zipped programs and datasets.

“The Balassa-Samuelson Relationship and the Renminbi,” KSG, Dec. 2006.   [Cited in "Push to tap into EM currency returns," Financial Times, Feb.27, 2011.]

"On the Yuan: The Choice Between Adjustment Under a Fixed Exchange Rate and Adjustment under a Flexible Rate,"  in Understanding the Chinese Economy, edited by Gerhard Illing.(Oxford University Press), 2006.  (With abstract), CESifo Economic Studies, Munich.  
RWP04-037.   NBER WP 11274.

“On the Renminbi,”  CESifo Forum, vol 6, no.3, Autumn 2005, pp.16-21 (Ifo Institute for Economic Research, Munich).

        Exchange Rates For Other Emerging Markets     

CID  projects, Harvard University:      
"Exchange rate and monetary policy for Kazakhstan in light of resource exports," December 2013. Consultancy for government of Kazakhstan, "Coping with Volatility,"  July 2013.   
         "On the Tenge: Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy for Kazakhstan" in "Growth & Competitiveness in Kazakhstan," pp.23-42,  CID, Apr.2005.  Russian translation, ADB, 2009.

CID South Africa Growth Initiative. 

         Project on South Africa: Performance and Prospects
 Center for International Development
      "On the Rand: Determinants of the South African Exchange Rate,"  in the
 South African Journal of Economics, 75, no.3, September 2007.
       Other Frankel papers/presentations on South Africa.              
"Experience of and Lessons from Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging Economies," in Monetary and Financial Integration in East Asia, Asian Development Bank, 2004 (Palgrave Macmillan), vol.2,  91-138 RWP03-011 and NBER WP no.10032.       

"Global Transmission of Interest Rates: Monetary Independence and Currency Regimes," with Sergio L. Schmukler and Luis Servén,  NBER WP no.8828.  Journal of International Money and Finance, 23, no. 5, Sept. 2004, 701-34.
"Verifiability and the Vanishing Intermediate Exchange Rate Regime,"  with Sergio Schmukler and Luis Servén;  Brookings Trade Forum 2000, edited by S.Collins and D.Rodrik (Brookings Institution, Washington DC).

"No Single Currency Regime is Right for All Countries or at All Times," Graham Lecture, Princeton University.   Essays in International Finance No. 215, Princeton University Press.   NBER WP No.7338, 1999.
        The Euro and other Currency Unions  

"Over-optimistic Official Forecasts and Fiscal Rules in the Eurozone," with Jesse Schreger, 2013,  in  Review of World Economy (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv) 149, no.2, 2013. NBER WP 18283, 2012.   Described in "Will Europe's Fiscal Compact Work?" Project Syndicate, Jan.2013.

Over-optimism in Forecasts by Official Budget Agencies and Its Implications,"
 Oxford Review of Economic Policy  Vol.27, Issue 4, 2011, 536-562  NBER WP 17239;  Summary in NBER Digest, Nov.2011.  


Causes of Eurozone Crises,”  July 20,  2015, written for Causes of Eurozone crises past and future, a VoxEU eBook co-edited by Richard Baldwin & Francesco Giavazzi (CEPR).

"Is Tsipras the New Kim Dae-Jung?," Korea Herald, July 20, 2015

The Euro Crisis: Where to From Here?pdf,  published  in Journal of Policy Modeling, 37, issue 3, May/June 2015.  HKS RWP15-015.  AEA Annual Meetings, Boston, January 3, 2015, slides

Why the ECB Should Buy US Treasuries,” Keynote Speech, Tower Center / Owens Memorial Foundation Conference: The Political Economy of International Money, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and Southern Methodist University, Dallas, Texas, April 4, 2014.

 "The ECB Should Do QE via FX," Vox, March 24,2014.   "Considering QE, Mario?  Buy US Bonds, Not Euro Bonds" Mar.21.   "Why the ECB Should Buy American," Project Syndicate, Mar.13.
"Panel on the Euro Crisis," Center for European Studies, Harvard, Feb. 13, 2014.

"The Future of the Currency Union," written for Academic Consultants Meeting, Federal Reserve Board, May 2013; slides.  HKS RWP13-015.

Which Eurobonds?" Project Syndicate, June 14, 2012.    Full version: "Could Eurobonds Help Solve the Euro Crisis?" Vox, June 2012.

"The Euro Crisis & Greece: Six Mistakes,” Kokkalis Program, Feb.13, 2012. 
 "The Euro, Moral Hazard & the Analogy to 50 US States," Harvard, Feb.13, 2002.
"The Euro Crisis and Greece: 5 Mistakes," slides, Dec.2, MIT;  Harvard, Dec.6, 2011.  

"The Greek Debt Crisis: The ECB's 3 Big Mistakes,"
Vox, May 16, 2011;  Part I & Part II.  

“Optimal Currency Areas & Governance", slides session on the Challenge of Europe at the Annual Conference of George Soros’ INET, April 10, 2011; video available, including my presentation.

"Let Greece Go to the IMF," February 11, 2010.

"Comments on 'The euro: It can’t happen, It’s a bad idea, It won’t last. U.S. economists on the EMU, 1989-2002,' by Lars Jonung & Eoin Drea," slides. Euro at 10: Reflections on American Views, ASSA meetings, San Francisco, Jan.2009.



“The Estimated Effects of the Euro on Trade:  Why are They Below Historical Evidence on Effects of Monetary Unions Among Smaller Countries?” in Europe and the Euro, edited by Alberto Alesina & Francesco Giavazzi (University of Chicago Press), 2010.    WCFIA WP 2009-008  Dataset.   NBER WP 14542. RWP08-076, HKS.   Slides, NBER conference, 2008.   Slides, ASSA meetings, San Francisco, 2009.

Should Eastern European Countries Join the Euro? A Review & Update of Trade Estimates and Consideration of Endogenous OCA Criteria,” for Dubrovnik Economic Conference XIV, hosted by Central Bank of Croatia.  
RWP08-059, Harvard Univ. 

Should Central European Countries Join the Euro? A Review and Update of Trade Estimates and Consideration of Endogenous OCA Criteria,” for  Report on Poland's Full Membership in the 3rd Stage of the Economic and Monetary Union, Oct.2008, National Bank of Poland, Warsaw.  

 Why the Euro Will Rival the Dollar,” with Menzie Chinn, International Finance (Blackwill Publishers), 11, no.1, 49-73.  Revised from “The Euro May Over the Next 15 Years Surpass the Dollar as Leading International Currency." Page proofsRWP08-016  and  NBER WP 13909, .

"Will the Euro Eventually Surpass the Dollar as Leading International Reserve Currency?" with Menzie Chinn.   In G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, edited by Richard Clarida (Univ.of Chicago Press, 2007).     
NBER WP 11510.   
At AEI 2005 .   At Conference on Global Imbalances & Asian Financial Markets, UC Berkeley, 2005 slides. 

My comments on "The Euro's Trade Effects,", by Richard Baldwin , March 2006; ECB WP 594, 2006.  

Comments on: "The Euro, Stabilization Policy, and the Stability and Growth Pact or Can Rubinomics work in the Eurozone?" by Adam S. Posen.  In The Euro at Five: Ready for a Global Role? edited by Adam Posen, 2005; pp. 157-169.   Conference at the Institute for International Economics.

"Real Convergence and Euro Adoption in Central and Eastern Europe: Trade and Business Cycle Correlations as Endogenous Criteria for Joining EMU,"  in Euro Adoption in the Accession Countries – Opportunities and Challenges,  edited by Susan Schadler (IMF: Washington DC), 2005 RWP04-039 .

"The Euro Area and World Interest Rates" with Menzie Chinn.  NY Fed conference on "Financial Globalization", 2004 Summary in conference proceedings, Centre for Economic Policy Research, London.

"The UK Decision re EMU: Implications of Currency Blocs for Trade and Business Cycle Correlations," in Submissions on EMU from Leading Academics (H.M. Treasury: London), 2003, p.99-109. 

“Currency Blocs and Market Integration: Implications for Trade and Business Cycle Correlations,” A background report for the Commission on The UK Outside the Euro, October 30, 2002. 

"Comments on ‘Full Dollarization: The Case of Panama’ by Goldfajn and Olivares," LACEA, Rio de Janeiro, 2000; Economia Spring 2001, vol.1, no.2.

"An Estimate of the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade and Income," with Andrew Rose. Quarterly Journal of Economics. May 2002. SUMMARY published in Currency Unions, edited by Alberto Alesina and Robert Barro, Hoover Institution Press, Stanford, CA, 2001.  [Our data, some relevant op-ed and newspaper coverage, and a response to a comment by Dani Rodrik, are available at Andy Rose's website.] 
The Frankel-Romer-Rose gravity-based instrumental variable for trade openness, as updated in Frankel-Rose, 2002

"On the Euro: An American Perspective," for EMU Watch Series, DB Research, Frankfurt, June 21, 2000. 

   Proposals for NGDP Targeting, Product Price Targeting (PPT) & Peg the Export Price (PEP)     

"Nominal GDP Targeting for Middle-Income Countries," published in Central Bank Review, vol.14, no.3, September 2014 (Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey), pp.1-14.  HKS RWP 14-033, July.;  HKS Summary.

"Emerging Market Target Practice," Project Syndicate; "Developing Countries Should Target Nominal GDP," The Guardian, June 24, 2014.  Extended version: "Nominal GDP Targeting for Developing Countries,"  VoxEU,  Aug.21, 2014.

The Best of Rules and Discretion: A Case for Nominal GDP Targeting in India,” with Pranjul Bhandari,  CID WP No. 284, July 2014.

"Product Price Targeting -- A New Improved Way of Inflation Targeting," in MAS Monetary Review Vol.XI, issue 1, April 2012 (Monetary Authority of Singapore), pp.2-5.

A Comparison of Product Price Targeting and Other Monetary Anchor Options, for Commodity-Exporters in Latin America,"  Economia, vol.12, no.1 (Brookings Institution), 2011: 1-57. CID WP 225, Nov.2011.   NBER WP 16362, Sept.2010

"UAE & Other Gulf Countries Urged to Switch Currency Peg from the Dollar to a Basket That Includes Oil,Vox,
, 9 July 2008.

“Peg the Export Price Index: A Proposed Monetary Regime for Small Countries,”   Journal of Policy Modeling vol.27, no.4, June 2005.  KSG  RWP03-003, Harvard University.

Iraq’s Currency Solution? Tie the Dinar to Oil," The International Economy, Fall 2003.

A Proposal to Tie Iraq’s Currency to Oil published as "A Crude Peg for the Iraqi Dinar," Financial Times, June 13, 2003.

"A Proposed Monetary Regime for Small Commodity-Exporters: Peg the Export Price (‘PEP’)," (w. appendix) Yale, Apr.2003.  International Finance (Blackwill Publishers), vol.6, no.1, Spring 2003, 61-88.

"A Proposal to Anchor Monetary Policy by the Price of the Export Commodity,"  with Ayako Saiki, J. of Econ. Integration, Sept. 2002, vol.17, no.3, 417-48. 

  "Should Gold-Exporters Peg Their Currencies to Gold?"
Research Study No. 29,  World Gold Council,  London, UK, 2002.     

Tables and Charts  

On Global Environmental Issues          

     Climate Change Policy: The Kyoto Protocol and Design of a Possible Successor     

"A Pre-Lima Scorecard for Evaluating Which Countries Are Doing their Fair Share in Pledged Carbon Cuts," with Valentina Bosetti, Dec.2014.  Shorter version for VoxEU.  Or Viewpoints summary of full text of Policy Brief, Harvard Project on Climate Agreements Op-ed version in Project Syndicate, Nov.14, 2014.  Dataset underlying Scorecard, Nov.2014 (data from.Hof, et al, 2013.)

Sustainable Cooperation in Global Climate Policy: Specific Formulas and Emission Targets,” with Valentina Bosetti; published in Climate Change Economics, 2014, vol.5, no.3, August; uncorrected proofs, 2014 .  Revised text 2013; Tables, Appendix 1, July 2013.   HKS RWP 12-012
 Revised from "Sustainable Cooperation in Global Climate Policy: Specific Formulas and Emission Targets to Build on Copenhagen and Cancun,"  NBER WP 17669, 2011 HPICA  Disc.Paper No.46; and FEEM WP 66, 2011.  

"After Durban: What is the Politically Sustainable Path of Targets for Greenhouse Gas Emissions?" slides, March 2012.
"How to Agree Emission Targets at Durban," with Valentina Bosetti,  VoxEU, Nov. 28, 2011.     At Firstpost, Nov.30.
"After th
e Cancun Agreements: What is the Politically Feasible Path to Comprehensive Targets for Greenhouse Gas Emissions?" slides,  Boston College, March 2011.  Without appendices.    "After Copenhagen & Cancun" slides, The Birger Lecture, Tufts University, 2011.

"The Copenhagen Accord: 2020 Emission Goals Submitted by 14 Countries," blog, March 16, 2010.

"After Copenhagen: What is the Politically Feasible Path to Comprehensive Targets for Greenhouse Gas Emissions?" seminar, Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business & Government, March 11, 2010.

"After Copenhagen," short presentation at Harvard University Center for the Environment, March 2, 2010.

"Copenhagen and Key Next Steps,"  Roundtable hosted by HPICA, Copenhagen, Denmark, Dec. 15, 2009.      "How to Solve the Copenhagen Impasse," Nov. 18, 2009.

"Targets, Timetables and Trade: How to achieve a successful Copenhagen," East Asia Forum Quarterly, vol. I, no. 3, Oct.-Dec. 2009, pages 11-13.

"A Post-Kyoto International Global Climate Agreement Proposal," Harvard Environmental Economics Program’s International Advisory Board meeting, Nov. 13, 2009.  Full slidesSynopsis.

"Last Exit Copenhagen? " Climate Governance Workshop, The Goethe-Institut Boston & Center for European Studies, Oct. 20, 2009.

"A Pragmatic Global Climate Policy Architecture," (with V. Bosetti), Weekly Policy Commentary, Oct. 12, 2009;  reprinted in Issues of the Day: 100 Commentaries on Climate, Energy, the Environment, Transportation, and Public Health Policy, edited by Ian Parry and Felicia Day  (Resources for the Future: Washington DC), 2010, p. 4-5.

"Targets, Timetables and Trade," or "The Politically Possible: How to Achieve  Success in Copenhagen" op-ed for the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, October 2009.

"Politically Feasible Emission Target Formulas to Attain 460 ppm CO2 Concentrations," with Valentina Bosetti; Review of Environmental Economics and Policy (Oxford University Press) vol.6, no.1, winter 2011-12: 86-109 HKS RWP 11-016, Feb.2011.  Condensed from  "Global Climate Policy Architecture and Political Feasibility:  Specific Formulas and Emission Targets to Attain 460PPM CO2 Concentrations" 2009.   FEEM Working Paper 92, 2009.   NBER WP no. 15516, Nov. 2009.    HPICA Disc.Paper 09-30.

"An Elaborated Proposal for Global Climate Policy Architecture: Specific Formulas and Emission Targets for All Countries in All Decades,”  
in Post-Kyoto International Climate Policy, edited by Joe Aldy and Rob Stavins, Chapter 2, pp.31-87 (Cambridge University Press), 2009.   WP 08-08, for the Harvard Project on International Climate Agreements   NBER WP 14876 , includes 450 ppm case.       Slides, Apr.15, 2009, BCSIA, HKS.  Slides, RFF, April 23, 2009.   Policy summary.   "How to set greenhouse gas emission targets for all countries," Vox, July 18, 2009.    1-page blogpost July 21, 2009.    ["US academics call for GHG emission targets for all countries," LowCarbonEconomy, July 22, 2009.]


Possible Impacts of Global Climate Change Policy on Mexico and other Developing Countries in Coming Years,” memo to Mexican President Felipe Calderón, Jan.2009.  Chapter 2.2 of The Mexico Competitiveness Report 2009, released in June at a workshop in Mexico City.

 “How to Make Climate Change Research Relevant to Washington policymakers,” Workshop on Climate Change Impacts and Integrated Assessment, Energy Modeling Forum, Snowmass, Colorado, July 31-Aug 1, 2008, slides.

Next Steps After the Kyoto Protocol:   Formulas for Quantitative Emission Targets (summary),” Vox , June 2007.

1-page comment on Martin Wolf's column "In spite of sceptics, it is worth reducing climate change."  For FT Forum,, Feb. 7, 2007.

1-page comment on “Curbs on emissions will take a change of political climate.”   For FT Forum,, Nov. 8, 2006.

“Formulas for Quantitative Emission Targets,” Chapter 2 in   Architectures for Agreement: Addressing Global Climate Change in the Post Kyoto World, Joe Aldy and Rob Stavins, eds., Cambridge University Press, 2007, p. 32-56.     KSG RWP07-011, Feb. 2007.    [Press release, March 2007: "After Kyoto, Then What?" Kennedy School professor outlines plan to confront challenges posed by greenhouse gas emissions.]        Summary slides version, for
New Directions in Regulatory Policy, Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government Oct. 24, 2007.

Comments on Barrett, Nordhaus, Pizer, & Stavins, Kyoto and Beyond: Alternative Approaches to Global Warming, AEA meetings, Jan 6, 2006,  Boston.

"Designing a Regime of Emission Commitments for Developing Countries that is Cost-Effective and Equitable," with Joseph Aldy, written for G20 Leaders and Climate Change, Council on Foreign Relations, Sept. 20-21, 2004.

"The Impact of a Revised Kyoto Protocol on Developing Countries," August 2004, written for Business and Economy, India.

"You're Getting Warmer:  The Most Feasible Path for Addressing Global Climate Change Does Run Through Kyoto," Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Milan, 2001. Published as Chapter 3 in Trade and Environment: Theory and Policy in the Context of EU Enlargement and Transition Economies, edited by John Maxwell and Rafael Reuveny (Edward Elgar Publishers, Ltd., UK), 2005; pp. 37-55.

"The Economics of the Kyoto Protocol and Global Climate Change Policy," Kennedy School Forum, March 15, 2000.

"Greenhouse Gas Emissions," Policy Brief no. 52, The Brookings Institution, Washington, DC, June 1999.


     Trade and the Environment   

"Trade, Growth and the Environment," Rob Stavins' class, April 2016; ppt slides, pdf.   2015, pdf.
“Trade, Growth, and the Environment,” slides, HUCE  Graduate Consortium March 4th, 2016 (pdf).

“Trade, Growth, and the Environment,” slides for guest lecture, 2013,  in Rob Stavins’ class
in Environmental & Resource Economics & Policy.
“Trade, Growth, & the Environment,”
slides, March 2013 & March 2010.  Graduate Consortium on Energy & Environment Harvard Univ.

"Trade and the Environment," slides, Thinking Ahead on International Trade, Geneva, June 2009.

"The Global Climate Regime & the Global Trade Regime," slides; for Regulatory Policy Program Seminar, Mar.2008. Harvard Univ.  [HKS News.]

“Environmental Effects of International Trade,” A Report for the Swedish Globalisation Council, Government of Sweden;  presented Jan.2009, Stockholm.  Proofs.   RWP 09-006, HKS.    

"Global Environment and Trade Policy," March 2009,  for the Harvard Project on International Climate Agreements.    Proofs in Post-Kyoto International Climate Policy, edited by Joe Aldy and Rob Stavins (Cambridge University Press, 2009);    Revised version of “Global Environmental Policy and Global Trade Policy,”   RWP08-058.  HPICA paper no.08-14  Policy summary.          

Addressing the Leakage/Competitiveness Issue In Climate Change Policy Proposals,” Proofs  in Climate Change, Trade and Investment: Is a Collision Inevitable?  (Brookings Institution Press: Washington, DC), 2009, edited by Lael Brainard and Isaac Sorkin, p. 69-91.    2008 conference, Brookings.   WCFIA WP 4792, April 2009.

"Climate and Trade: Links Between the Kyoto Protocol and WTO,"  in Environment, vol. 47, no. 7, September 2005: 8-19.  Revised from  "Kyoto and Geneva: Linkage of the Climate Change Regime and the Trade Regime" a speech for Broadening Climate Discussion, FEEM/MIT conference, Venice, 2004.    RWP04-042

Press coverage: 
"U.S. tariffs would chill climate pact and trade," Reuters, Nov. 24, 2009
"International Trade and the Environment: Ever the Twain Shall Meet?" Impact, HKS, Spring 2009
Trade Offs: When Climate Policy Clashes With Trade  Polilcy," Wall Street Journal, Jan.30, 2009.
“Study: Kyoto Protocol, Free Trade Compatible -- Harvard professor reconciles free trade and ecological responsibility,”  Harvard Crimson, Nov. 5, 2008.
"Kyoto Protocol and World Trade Organization on a “collision course.  HKS news,  Nov.3, 2008.


"Is Trade Good or Bad for the Environment?  Sorting out the Causality" with Andrew Rose, Review of Economics and Statistics, 87, no. 1, 2005.  Reprinted in Recent Papers in Trade and the Environment, B.Copeland, ed. (Edward Elgar Publ.), 2014.  NBER WP 9201  NBER digest. Condensed version, RWP03-038.   [Data available (in Stata).]

"The Environment and Globalization" in Globalization: What's New edited by Michael Weinstein, Council on Foreign Relations (Columbia University Press: NY), 2005, pp.129-169.   NBER WP 10090.  At Neemrana, India, 2003.  Reprinted in Economics of the Environment: Selected Readings, Fifth Edition, edited by R.Stavins (W.W.Norton: NY), 2005.


     Energy and the Environment

"Market Failure and Political Failure," Project Syndicate, Feb.11.   Extended as "The Rise and Fall of Cap-and-Trade," Feb.18, 2014.

"Fear of Fracking," Project Syndicate, Apr.16; "The Problem with the Precautionary Principle," Apr.18, 2013.

"Real Energy Security: Drill, Baby, Drill—But Not Now,"   Dec.3, 2010, Weekly Policy Commentary, Resources for the Future.  "Gulfs in Our Energy Security, and the Louisiana Blowout," blog, May 23,2010

"Energy and the Environment: Policy Advice for the New Administration:  The
Matrix";  AEA/AERE meetings, San Francisco, Jan. 2009.

"Achieving Environmental Goals at Minimum Economic Cost," Edison Electric Institute Advisory Panel on Fuel Diversity, EEI Chief Executives Conference, Palm Springs, 2000.


On Globalization and Trade        

“What Do Economists Mean by Globalization?  Implications for Inflation and Monetary Policy,”  Oct.4 draft; for Academic Consultants Meeting, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Sept.28, 2006.    Slides with graphs.   Forthcoming,  in Economic Integration - Global Experience, edited by  P. Pushkele, with S. Pathak,  Icfai University Press (Institute of Chartered Financial Analysts of India): Hyderbad, Dec.2007.

"Pro-Trade Arguments in Answer to the Contrarians," Financial Times, July 11, 2005.

"The World Trading System and Implications of External Opening"; written for a panel of Fundacio CIDOB forum, Barcelona, Spain, Sept.24-25, 2004.  In The Washington Consensus Reconsidered: Towards a New Global Governance, edited by Narcis Serra and Joseph Stiglitz (Oxford University Press), 2008.  CFIA Disc Paper 04-07.

"The Flubbed Opportunity for the US to Exercise Global Economic Leadership";  published as "Bush's Spectacular Failure," The International Economy, XVIII, no. 2, Spring 2004.

"A Review of The Wind of the Hundred Days: How Washington Mismanaged Globalization by Jagdish Bhagwati," Foreign Affairs, March/April, 2001.

"Assessing the Efficiency Gains from Further Liberalization," in Efficiency, Equity and Legitimacy: The Multilateral Trading System at the Millennium, in honor of Raymond Vernon. Edited by R.Porter, P.Sauve, A.Subramanian, and A.Zampetti ( Brookings Institution Press, Washington, D.C.) 2001.  [Cited in Washington Post Editorial.]

"Globalization: Why and How It Should Continue," MacArthur Transnational Economic Security Workshop, MIT, 2000.

"Globalization of the Economy," in Governance in a Globalizing World, edited by Joseph Nye and John Donahue (Brookings Institution Press, Washington, D.C.), 2000.    Reprinted in International Politics: Enduring Concepts and Contemporary Issues, Robert Art and Robert Jervis, eds., Longman, 7th ed. 2005 - 9th ed. 2009.   And in International Political Economy, edited by Jeffry Frieden, David Lake and J. Lawrence Broz: (Norton: NY, 5th edition), 2009.    NBER WP 7858.   {Application of the "Frankel Index," by Rolf Langhammer, "Does International Trade Catch Up..." 2011.}

The Frankel-Romer-Rose gravity-based instrumental variable for trade openness, as updated in Frankel-Rose, 2002

On the US, Asia, and the Global Economic System      

"Betting on the Tortoise in Japan,"  Project Syndicate, Sept.12, 2013.    

Economic Shocks and International Politics,”  Survival June/July 2012.  M-RCBG WP 12-05. Written for Conference on A New Era of Geo-economics: Assessing the Interplay between Political and Economic RiskInternational Institute for Strategic Studies, Bahrain, March 2012. 

"Chinese relative prices have risen more (since 2009) via inflation than via nominal RMB appreciation," background graphs and table for "China Adjusts," Project Syndicate, March 2012.

"G20 Guidelines for Persistently Large Imbalances," slides, Experts Panel, G20 Working Group on the Framework for Strong, Sustainable and Balanced Growth, Paris, 13 January, 2011.

"The RMB as an International Currency," Slides, Club de CEPII, Paris, 12 January, 2011. 

"G20: Leadership Need Not Come Only from the G7," Oct.28, 2010, East Asia Forum Quarterly

"Asia, the US, and the G20 in 2010," presentation, Harvard Project for Asian & International Relations,  Feb. 19, 2010, conference.

"China, the US, and Currency Issues," presentation, Chinese Future Leaders, Harvard, Jan. 29, 2010. 

"After  the Global Financial Crisis: Korea, the US, and the G-20", presentation, 25
th anniversary of the Korea-America Economic Association, Atlanta, Jan.4, 2010. 

On Global Currencies,” keynote speech for workshop sponsored by the Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank, Frankfurt, June 2009.  Powerpoint.    
[Condensed & translated into Chinese, for  International Herald Leader, Xinhua, Beijing, 2009.]
“The US, China, & the Policy Choices,”  presentation. Conference on the Global Economy in Balance,  U. Wisconsin, 2008.

Comments on Dooley and Garber, “Is it 1958 or 1968?   Three Notes on the Longevity of the Revived Bretton Woods System,” Brookings Panel on Economic Activity, issue I, 2005, 195-204.

"Push the Euro Up and the Yen Down".  Osaka, April 17, 2002.       

"To What Extent is the US Following in Japan’s Footsteps?" Forum, The International Economy,  2000.    Repeated, 2009, in answer to "Is America head for a 1990s Japan-style lost decade of stagnant growth?"

Comments on N.Yoshino and E.Sakakibara's "The Current State of the Japanese Economy and Remedies,"  Asian Economic Papers, vol.1, no.2, 2002.

Recent Developments in American International Economic Policy  


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