N "A Quarter Century of Currency Expectations Data: The Carry Trade and the Risk Premium" (pdf), with Menzie Chinn, July 2016.

NEW “Bias in Official Fiscal Forecasts: Can Private Forecasts Help?” with Jesse Schreger, HKS Faculty Research Working Paper Series RWP16-021, pdf, May 2016.

NEW    "Nominal GDP Targeting for Developing Countries," with Pranjul Bhandari. NBER WP 20898.  Shortened, Jan. 2016. NBER WP 20898, January 2015.  Revised from “The Best of Rules and Discretion: A Case for Nominal GDP Targeting in India 2014.  CID WP No. 284Data, AS & results.

“Should Eastern European Countries Join the Euro? A Review and Update of Trade Estimates and Consideration of Endogenous OCA Criteria,” for Dubrovnik Economic Conference XIV, 2008.  Hosted by Central Bank of Croatia.

"Are the Forecasts of Exchange Rate Volatility Implicit in Options Prices Excessively Variable?" with Shang-Jin Wei, NBER WP  3910, 1991.

"A Note on Internationally Coordinated Policy Packages Intended to Be Robust Under Model Uncertainty: Or Policy Cooperation Under Uncertainty: The Case for Some Disappointment," Economics Dept., UC Berkeley, 05-01-1991



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