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Broad, Kenneth, and Shardul Agrawala. 2000. "The Ethiopia Food Crisis--Uses and Limits of Climate Forecasts." Science 289(5485): 1693-1694 (Policy Forum).

For more information about this publication, you may contact:

Kenneth Broad, International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate Prediction, Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, 61 Route 9W, Palisades, NY 10964; email: kbroad "at"



Post-cold war investment in science--particularly in the case of seasonal to interannual climate forecasting--is increasingly justified by the goal of demonstrating explicit societal benefit. A review of the 2000 food crisis in Ethiopia and the state of the science of seasonal forecasting is sobering and underscores the need to foster more realistic expectations among both policy-makers and scientists about the uses and limits of climate forecasts in alleviating complex social problems.


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