Consortium for Energy Policy Research at Harvard

Populism and Natural Resources

An Energy Policy Research Project
John F. Kennedy School of Government
Harvard University
Cambridge, Massachusetts
Thursday and Friday, November 1-2, 2007


Thursday, November 1, 2007
Kennedy Room, Charles Pavilion, One Eliot Street
(adjacent to Kennedy School Taubman Building)

1:55 pm          Welcoming remarks
William Hogan and Federico Sturzenegger, KSG, Harvard University

2:00-3:00 pm  “A Resource Belief-Curse:  Oil and Individualism” 
Rafael Di Tella, Harvard Business School, Harvard University
Robert MacCulloch, Imperial College
Juan Dubra, Universidad de Montevideo
Discussant: George Marios Angeletos, MIT

3:00-4:00 pm “Sovereign Theft: Theory and Evidence about Sovereign Default and
Mark Wright, Department of Economics, UCLA
Mike Tomz, Department of Political Science, Stanford University
Discussant: Jeromin Zettelmeyer, International Monetary Fund

4:00-4:15 pm Coffee Break

4:15-5:15 pm “Contracts in Natural Resources”   
Philippe Aghion, Department of Economics, Harvard University
Discussant: Lawrence Summers, KSG, Harvard

5:15-6:15 pm  “The Political Economy of Oil Contract Renegotiation in Venezuela”  
Osmel Manzano, Inter-American Development Bank
Francisco Monaldi, IESA, Caracas
Discussant: Ramon Espinasa, Consultant IDB and former Chief Economist, PDVSA

7:00 pm  Reception: Harvard Faculty Club, 20 Quincy Street
7:30 pm   Speakers Dinner: Harvard Faculty Club

Friday, November 2, 2007                                                                                                  
Kennedy Room, Charles Pavilion, One Eliot Street

8:30 am           Breakfast

9:00-10:00 am “Credibility, Commitment, and Regulation”
Dieter Helm, Oxford University, Oxford
Discussant: Jeffrey Frankel, KSG, Harvard University

10:00–11:00 am  “Hydrocarbons Policy, Shocks and Collective Imagination: What Went Wrong in Bolivia?”
Fernando Navajas, Fundación de Investigaciones Económicas Latinoamericanas, Buenos Aires
Discussant: Fernando Candia, Managing Director of EFECE and,former Finance Minister and Central Bank President of Bolivia

11:00-11:15 am Coffee Break

11:15 am-12:15 pm  “Urgency and Betrayal:  Three Attempts to Foster Private Investment
in the Argentinean Oil Industry”

Nicolas Gadano, CIPPEC, Buenos Aires
Discussant:  Louis Wells, Harvard Business School, Harvard University

12.15-1:00 pm  Lunch

1:00-2:00 pm “Pricing Expropriation Risk in Natural Resource Contracts: A Real Options

Eduardo Schwartz, Anderson School of Management, UCLA
Anders Trolle, Copenhagen Business School, Copenhagen
Discussant:  Robert Pindyck, MIT

2:00-3:00 pm “Optimal Resource Extraction Contracts Under Threat of Expropriation” 
Eduardo Engel, Department of Economics, Yale University; and
Ronald Fischer, Department Ingenieria Industrial,
Universidad de Chile, Santiago.
Discussant: Richard Zeckhauser and Nils Wernerfelt, KSG, Harvard University

3:00-4:00 pm  “Dealing with Expropriations:  General Guidelines for
Oil Production Contracts”

Roberto Rigobon, Sloan School of Business, MIT
Discussant: Erich Muehlegger, KSG, Harvard University

4:00-4.20PM     Wrap-up
Bijan Mossavar-Rahmani, Mondoil Corporation


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